I had a misunderstanding at work one day when I said I wasn't confident. They saw this as an act of self-deprecation. That I was "lacking confidence" and was in fact an unsure sort of person without faith in my own ability. The solution for this, of course, is simply to have faith, they would say. To believe. To wake up in the morning and recite to yourself those mantras that you have sellotaped to the mirror.
Consequently, the work I had not much confidence in was taken as entirely valid and acceptable. and really it was at best extraneous and at worst annoying to my colleagues, that I would cause genuine concern that I may have messed up. "Just have some confidence, man!"
What I really meant was that, given the likelihood and severity of all possible failures, the risk was not to be ignored. How confident I was reduced as that sum increased. In fact, I was incredibly confident (high self-esteem) regarding this calculation.
Could it be that these two things are actually the same thing, and deserve the same name of 'confidence'? Is the first an instinctive self-judgement, incorporating your current emotional state? Is the second consciously thought through and devoid of feeling?
Considering the antonyms may help. Confidence #1 is to timidity as confidence #2 is to risk. If they are actually different, is there a favoured synonym for either? If they are the same, what can we learn?